The legendary chimney atop the Sistine Chapel released black smoke on Thursday, indicating that the cardinals sequestered within the Vatican conclave have yet to elect a new pope to lead the Roman Catholic Church.
This visual signal, eagerly awaited by thousands of faithful gathered in St. Peter’s Square, emerged shortly before noon (10:00 GMT), concluding the morning voting session, during which two ballots were conducted.
The 133 cardinal electors, all under the age of 80, began the highly ritualized and secretive papal election process on Wednesday, entering complete isolation to choose a successor to the late Pope Francis.
The Cardinal Voting Process: Why Black Smoke Means No Pope Elected Yet
The cardinals participating in the conclave burn their ballot papers after each voting session. These are mixed with chemicals to produce smoke that communicates the progress of the election.
Black smoke signifies that no candidate has yet achieved the necessary two-thirds majority to become the new pope. Conversely, white smoke will herald the successful election of a new pontiff.
In the aftermath of this inconclusive initial vote on Wednesday evening, the cardinals are scheduled to hold up to two additional ballots on Thursday afternoon. Consequently, further smoke signals could potentially emerge from the Sistine Chapel chimney sometime after 5:30 p.m. (1530 GMT).
These “princes of the Church,” distinguished by their red hats, will continue the papal voting process, conducting up to four ballots each day until one of the cardinal candidates secures the required two-thirds majority of the votes.
While no pope in modern history has been elected on the first ballot, the appearance of black smoke on Wednesday was widely anticipated. However, historical precedent suggests that a successful papal election is possible on the second day of the conclave.
Pope Francis, the first pope from Latin America, was elected on the evening of the second day of the last conclave in 2013. Similarly, his predecessor, Benedict XVI, was elected on the second day of the 2005 conclave.
Italian Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, a 91-year-old who is ineligible to participate in the current conclave, conveyed to Italian reporters his hope that the new pope would be elected by Thursday evening.
The Front-Runners Amidst Speculation on Next Pope
While no clear front-runner has definitively emerged in the papal succession, Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin and Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle are widely considered to be among the leading papabili (potential papal candidates).
Beyond the initial front-runners, other papabili being discussed include France’s Jean-Marc Aveline, Hungary’s Peter Erdo, American Robert Prevost, Italy’s Pierbattista Pizzaballa, and Filipino Pablo Virgilio David. The diverse backgrounds and perspectives of these potential pope candidates will undoubtedly play a role in the conclave’s deliberations.
Should it become apparent that neither of the perceived front-runners can secure the necessary two-thirds majority, votes are expected to shift towards other contenders. In this scenario, the cardinal electors may rally around candidates based on factors such as geographic representation, shared doctrinal beliefs, or common languages.
Why It Matters
Prior to the commencement of the conclave, some cardinals publicly offered varying perspectives on the qualities and direction they seek in the next pope. Pope Francis’ relatively liberal pontificate has been marked by significant divisions between traditionalist and modernist factions within the Church.
Some cardinals have advocated for continuity with his vision of greater openness and reform, while others yearn for a return to more traditional practices. Many have indicated a desire for a more predictable and measured papacy moving forward.
The election of the new pope will be a decisive moment, guaranteed to shape the future trajectory of the Catholic Church.
