Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s political future hung in the balance on Thursday as three out of four federal electoral court justices ruled that he had abused his power during last year’s contentious election.
The case was adjourned until Friday when the remaining justices will deliver their verdict.
If a majority of the court’s seven judges find Bolsonaro guilty of power abuse by summoning ambassadors to make baseless claims about Brazil’s voting system before the election, he could be barred from holding public office until 2030.
As of now, three judges have voted to convict the far-right nationalist for political power abuse and media misuse, while one has not.
Bolsonaro, a former army captain, narrowly lost the election to leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in October last year.
He is accused of orchestrating a nationwide movement to overturn the election result, which led to the January 8 invasion of government buildings in Brasilia by thousands of his supporters. Bolsonaro denies any wrongdoing.
Elected in 2018 alongside a wave of right-wing leaders, including former U.S. President Donald Trump, Bolsonaro faced global criticism for his handling of the Amazon rainforest, his lax approach to COVID-19 restrictions, and his unsubstantiated attacks on Brazil’s electoral system.
The trial at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is part of a broader reckoning in Brazil following the country’s most contentious election in years. While Bolsonaro faces scrutiny in the electoral court, many of his former allies are being questioned by lawmakers in a congressional probe into the January 8 riots.
On Thursday, Bolsonaro flew to Rio de Janeiro, where he was met with chants of “criminal” and “coup-monger” at the airport. He called the TSE trial a political witch-hunt aimed at allowing the left to run uncontested in the 2026 election, in which he still hopes to participate.
Nevertheless, there is a widespread belief in Brazil, including among Bolsonaro’s supporters, that he is likely to be barred from holding office—an astonishing reversal of fortune for a figure who was once the country’s most powerful man.
While the TSE case does not carry the risk of imprisonment for Bolsonaro, the 68-year-old still faces multiple criminal investigations that could potentially lead to his incarceration.
Many of his former allies have distanced themselves from him, pinning their hopes on emerging right-wing leaders such as Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio Freitas and Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema.
Bolsonaro’s prospects for future relevance may lie with his family, including his wife and lawmaker sons, who may harbour their own presidential ambitions. He mentioned to Folha de S. Paulo that his wife Michelle could potentially be a presidential candidate in 2026, although he acknowledged her lack of political experience.
