The Democratic National Committee is set to approve a 2028 presidential primary calendar that prioritizes Black and Latino voters and organized labor, sidelining the traditional early states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
The proposed calendar, which the DNC is scheduled to approve Saturday at a meeting in Texas, would begin with South Carolina’s primary on Jan. 22, followed by Nevada on Feb. 1. New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia would round out the early states throughout February.
“It shouldn’t surprise anyone as a result of it being the largest and most diverse committee that we got the most diverse calendar in our party’s history,” DNC Chairman Ken Martin told a gathering of the party’s Black Caucus this week.
Why the Change?
South Carolina was more decisive than Iowa and New Hampshire for nominees Barack Obama in 2008, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. All three dominated among South Carolina’s large Black population, which can yield more than half the state’s Democratic primary electorate.
With Nevada and New Mexico following, candidates will also need to court more Latino voters long before voting starts.
Former presidential candidate Howard Dean, who as party chairman solidified Nevada and South Carolina as early states behind Iowa and New Hampshire, said the latest change is even better. “These states look more like the country,” he said, “whereas Iowa and New Hampshire don’t.”
The Progressive vs. Establishment Dynamic
There’s disagreement over how the progressive versus mainstream liberal split may surface in the calendar. Boyd Brown, a former DNC member from South Carolina, said primary voters in the North are “a little different” than those in South Carolina. “It’s not the woke ideologies that we just can’t get away from” in other places.
Nina Smith, a former Buttigieg adviser, disagreed. “Southern Black voters are more progressive than they’re given credit for” on policy but also “realists” about what’s possible. “Living through Jim Crow and other oppressive structures will force you to take that approach,” she said.
“A lot of Black voters don’t necessarily see themselves in the ideas and arguments that progressives put forward,” she added.
Labor’s Spotlight
The slate covers three major organized labor buckets. Nevada has service industry unions because of Las Vegas; Michigan has the auto industry; Virginia is home to more federal workers than any other state.
“Labor is still so important,” Dean said. Beyond seeking members’ votes, campaigns and the party look to organized labor for help in spreading Democrats’ message and getting people to the polls.
The General Election Impact
All but South Carolina are competitive general election states. That means even before Super Tuesday, Democrats — including the eventual nominee — will have spent significant time and resources in battlegrounds worth a combined 43 Electoral College votes. That’s not insignificant on the way to the 270 needed to win.
The Bottom Line
The DNC is set to approve a 2028 primary calendar that prioritizes Black and Latino voters and organized labor. South Carolina would go first on Jan. 22, followed by Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. The calendar replaces the traditional early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, which party leaders say do not reflect the diversity of the country. The new calendar is expected to produce a more battle-tested nominee.
