The deployment of North Korean troops to Russia to support its war against Ukraine has sparked intense speculation. Observers are questioning how effective these troops—who likely lack real combat experience—will be in the grueling battle against Ukraine. Additionally, there is a broader inquiry into the extent of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s commitment to the alliance with Russia, the number of elite soldiers North Korea can provide, and the potential scale of casualties for these relatively untested forces. Despite undergoing training under Russian military guidance, several factors could impact both the quality of their training and their combat performance.
North Korea’s Military Support: Scope and Implications
Recent reports from Ukrainian, South Korean, and Western intelligence agencies suggest that North Korea is sending between 10,000 and 12,000 soldiers to assist Russia’s military operations in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently informed South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol that around 3,000 North Korean fighters are stationed on Russian training grounds near the war zone.
For Russia, facing mounting casualties in a prolonged conflict with Ukraine—approaching 700,000 fatalities—North Korea’s military presence could offer much-needed manpower. The arrival of North Korean troops might also provide a morale boost for exhausted Russian soldiers and could help strengthen Russian defensive and offensive capabilities, particularly in areas like the contested Kursk region.
Insights from Analysts on North Korean Troop Capabilities
Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution’s Center for Asia Policy Studies, commented that the North Korean forces could offer Russia an immediate boost through their sheer numbers. According to Ramon Pacheco Pardo, another analyst, North Korean troops—hailing from a highly militarized society—could effectively support Russian operations, benefiting from their own regular military training, even though they may lack specific knowledge of Russia’s terrain or arsenal. Pardo also suggested that North Korean troops would likely need minimal training with Russian firearms and explosives, enhancing their immediate combat readiness.
Yeo added that North Korean forces might prove valuable in repelling Ukrainian advances in regions like Kursk, where control is highly contested.
Challenges Ahead: Casualties and the Risk of Attrition
However, the deployment of North Korean troops comes with risks. Heavy casualties among North Korea’s elite soldiers could strain the partnership between Pyongyang and Moscow. Should initial deployments lead to significant losses, Kim Jong Un might hesitate to send further elite forces. For Pyongyang, though, this deployment could provide an opportunity to field-test its personnel in combat, gaining insights that could be valuable for North Korea’s military preparedness.
North Korea’s Role in Supplying Munitions
Beyond manpower, North Korea has become a crucial supplier of munitions for Russia, providing missiles and millions of artillery shells. Ukraine’s military intelligence has acknowledged this, identifying North Korea as a formidable ally for Russia. In response, Ukraine has specifically targeted ammunition depots storing North Korean munitions, attempting to disrupt the supply chain.
Morale and Defection: Potential Pitfalls for North Korean Forces
Despite the North Korean troops’ reported dedication to their homeland, morale could falter if casualty numbers climb to levels experienced by Russian forces. Yeo suggested that North Korean troops might face issues with morale, or even desertion and defection, under the strain of prolonged conflict.
In an effort to exploit potential cracks in North Korean loyalty, Ukraine has appealed to North Korean soldiers through a government-backed hotline, urging them not to “die senselessly on foreign soil.” The message was published in Korean and marks a direct attempt to encourage defections. Ukrainian media reported in mid-October that 18 North Korean soldiers had already deserted near the Ukraine border, though this has yet to be independently verified.
Yeo pointed out that the defection of North Korean special operation forces would deal a significant blow to the Kim regime, highlighting possible fractures within the North Korean military contingent deployed in Russia.
