On Friday, Thailand’s parliament elected Paetongtarn Shinawatra, a political newcomer, as its youngest prime minister. This election came just a day after Paetongtarn, daughter of controversial political figure Thaksin Shinawatra, was thrust into the spotlight amid ongoing power struggles between Thailand’s elite factions.
At 37, Paetongtarn now faces significant leadership challenges just two days after her political ally, Srettha Thavisin, was removed from the premiership by a judiciary that has been central to Thailand’s political turbulence over the past two decades. Her appointment raises many questions, particularly regarding her capacity to manage the complexities of Thai politics as a relatively new face on the scene. Her leadership will be closely scrutinized for her policy decisions and her ability to navigate the treacherous waters of a political landscape marked by coups, judicial interventions, and deep-seated rivalries.
Economic and Political Challenges
Thailand is currently grappling with a struggling economy characterized by stalled growth, rising inflation, and persistent income inequality. As the new prime minister, Paetongtarn must find ways to stabilize the economy and restore public confidence. The Pheu Thai Party’s promise of a 500 billion baht cash handout program is a critical policy that Paetongtarn must deliver on. However, implementing such a large-scale financial program amid economic uncertainty will be a daunting task requiring careful fiscal management and effective communication to avoid backlash or further economic destabilization.
Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University, noted the challenges ahead: “If she can’t bring the economy back and revive the party, it could be the end, especially as the People’s Party gains more momentum after their dissolution.”
The Shinawatra Legacy
Paetongtarn’s ascent is not just a personal milestone but also a significant chapter in the Shinawatra family’s political saga. The Shinawatras have dominated Thai politics for over two decades, with their populist policies winning widespread support, particularly in rural areas. However, their influence has also made them targets of the military and judicial establishments, leading to multiple coups and the forced exile of Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra.
By stepping into the role of prime minister, Paetongtarn is inheriting her family’s legacy. She becomes Thailand’s second female prime minister and the third member of the Shinawatra family to hold the position, following in the footsteps of her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra and her father Thaksin.
However, she also inherits the risks associated with the position. Analysts suggest that her appointment is a high-stakes move by Thaksin to secure the family’s political future. However, this decision could backfire if Paetongtarn fails to deliver on economic promises or if her administration is destabilized by the same forces that have historically opposed the Shinawatras. The possibility of another coup or judicial intervention cannot be ruled out, especially given Thailand’s history of military involvement in politics.
Paetongtarn’s First Remarks
In her initial statements as prime minister, Paetongtarn expressed her sorrow and confusion over Srettha’s dismissal and her resolve to take on the leadership role. “I talked to Srettha, my family, and people in my party and decided it was about time to do something for the country and the party,” she told reporters. “I hope I can do my best to make the country go forward. That’s what I’m trying to do. Today I’m honored and I feel very happy.”
Paetongtarn secured her position with 319 votes, nearly two-thirds of the parliamentary house. Shortly after her victory, she posted on Instagram, sharing a picture of her lunch—chicken rice—with the caption: “The first meal after listening to the vote.”
Challenges Ahead
Paetongtarn’s lack of government experience makes her ascent a risky move for her party, Pheu Thai, and her father, Thaksin Shinawatra. The new prime minister will face significant challenges, including a struggling economy, growing competition from rival parties, and dwindling support for Pheu Thai, which has yet to fulfill its key campaign promise of a 500 billion baht ($14.25 billion) cash handout program.
Political analysts, such as Nattabhorn Buamahakul of Vero Advocacy, see the move as a gamble. “It puts Thaksin’s daughter in the crosshairs and a vulnerable position,” Buamahakul commented, highlighting the risks involved in placing Paetongtarn at the forefront.
The recent fall of Srettha, who lasted less than a year in office, serves as a stark reminder of the challenges Paetongtarn may face. Thailand’s political landscape has been marked by a tumultuous cycle of coups, court rulings, and the dissolution of political parties, all of which have destabilized governments and toppled prime ministers.
Political Turmoil and Rivalry
Just nine days before Paetongtarn’s election, the same court that dismissed Srettha also dissolved the anti-establishment Move Forward Party, the 2023 election winner, for its campaign to amend a law against insulting the monarchy—a move the court argued could undermine the constitutional monarchy. The Move Forward Party has since rebranded itself as the People’s Party, posing a significant challenge to Pheu Thai.
The road ahead for Paetongtarn is fraught with uncertainties, and her ability to navigate these challenges will determine the future of her premiership and the Shinawatra political legacy.
