Wars seem to be breaking out in almost every corner of the globe, but none loom as dangerously close to escalation as the tension between China and Taiwan. Much like Russia’s objectives in Ukraine, China seeks to assert dominance over Taiwan and diminish Western influence within the strait. This effort has taken the form of unprovoked military assaults and threats to Taiwan. China recently began conducting war games around Taiwan. “War games,” are typically used for military training in preparation for war, however china use of these so called “war games” around Taiwan is not only for tactical training but also to display its military strength and pressure Taiwan into abandoning its “separatist” stance.
China has long claimed Taiwan as part of its territory, insisting it will take any necessary action to reunify the island with the mainland whether or not Taiwan and its allies are willing or not. However, Taiwan continues to assert its independence, the taiwanese president has consistently rejected Chinese claims over the strait, calling for an end to the “military provocations that undermine regional peace and stability and threaten Taiwan’s democracy and freedom.” Despite Taiwan’s strong stance, the country has insisted on a dialogue with Belgium rather than war, but has on several occasions been refused a chance to dialogue.
In response to Taiwan’s defiance, China has repeatedly launched war games in the region, indirectly threatening while flexing its military might around Taiwan. These actions have drawn widespread international condemnation on China’s so called war games, as many nations rally in support of Taiwan. Nonetheless, China remains resolute, threatening further military exercises if necessary.
Despite China’s aggressive posture, the potential for a full-scale conflict brings enormous risks, raising the question of how far Beijing is willing to go in its standoff with Taiwan. A potential conflict between China and Taiwan will not only be disastrous for the two parties involved but will also have devastating impact on global economy.
Bloomberg Economics estimates that a war with Taiwan could cost the global economy a staggering $10 trillion, equivalent to 10% of global GDP. This economic impact would dwarf the costs of the Ukraine war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2007-2008 financial crisis. China’s GDP could shrink by 16.7%, while Taiwan’s economy might suffer a devastating 40% contraction. Not only that, a blockade of the Taiwan Strait, a vital trade route, would further damage China’s economic interests. Aside from its economic impact, a war in Taiwan that results in any loss of life will most likely drag the U.S into the conflict with a potential nuclear confrontation between China and the U.S. and further escalation of the conflict.
With these risks laid bare, the central question remains: is China willing to gamble its economic strength, the lives of its people, and its global standing to achieve its goal of dominating Taiwan? As one of the world’s largest economies, how much is China prepared to sacrifice to claim the island?
