The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact, known as USMCA, is under pressure as U.S. President Donald Trump continues to question its value. Despite this, Mexican officials insist the agreement will survive, though businesses and analysts warn that tariffs and political interference could undermine the deal’s benefits.
Mexico Insists The Pact Will Survive
Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard spoke confidently on Thursday, saying the treaty review is on track and negotiations will conclude by July 1. He emphasized that progress has been made on all major points and the three countries remain committed to extending USMCA for another 16 years.
Ebrard’s statement comes after Trump dismissed the agreement as “irrelevant” earlier this week while visiting a Ford factory in Michigan. Trump’s skepticism casts doubt over the timing of the treaty’s extension, though Mexico remains publicly optimistic.
Tariffs and Trade Disruptions Still a Threat
Even if the treaty is extended, tariffs could remain a major issue. The U.S. has already imposed steep duties on Mexican exports, including 50% on steel and aluminum and 25% on cars, despite compliance with USMCA rules.
Pedro Casas, head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Mexico, warned that tariffs could continue to undercut the advantages of the agreement. “We could get an extended treaty but still face heavy export costs,” he said.
Political Tensions Make Negotiations Tricky
Trump’s focus on security and his recent threats of military action against Mexican cartels add a political layer to what is supposed to be an economic review. Many fear these security concerns could slow negotiations and turn a technical treaty review into a high-stakes political battle.
Alexia Bautista, former Mexican diplomat, noted that the July deadline may be unrealistic given the current U.S. political climate. She suggested that the treaty could be extended later in 2026, after U.S. midterm elections, leaving Mexican businesses in uncertainty for months.
What This Means For Mexico
The combination of ongoing tariffs, political uncertainty, and Trump’s skepticism threatens to affect Mexico’s export-driven economy. Automotive, steel, and aluminum industries remain vulnerable, while smaller exporters risk losing U.S. market access or facing higher costs.
Mexico relies heavily on USMCA to secure trade stability, but the current situation shows that even a strong treaty cannot fully protect businesses from political disruption.
The Wider Impact on North America
USMCA is meant to strengthen trade between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, but current tensions reveal a fragile system. While the treaty could survive in name, persistent tariffs and political interference may weaken its practical benefits, affecting supply chains, investment, and long-term economic planning across the region.
For Mexico, navigating Trump’s unpredictable approach means balancing trade, politics, and national economic priorities, all while hoping the treaty can deliver the stability businesses were promised
