In a bold and unprecedented move, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, three West African nations now under military rule, have joined forces to forge a new confederation, signaling their intent to break away from the established regional order. This historic treaty, signed at the first summit of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), underscores their collective resolve to navigate a tumultuous path toward autonomy and reshape the geopolitical landscape of the central Sahel. This development comes amidst pressures from ECOWAS urging these nations to return to democratic governance.
Formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)
The confederation treaty was signed at the inaugural summit of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), signaling a closer alignment between Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. These nations have experienced coups between 2020 and 2023, resulting in severed military and diplomatic ties with regional allies and Western powers.
Statements from Leaders
Niger’s military leader, General Abdourahamane Tiani, described the AES summit as “the culmination of our determined common will to reclaim our national sovereignty.” The formalization of this treaty underscores the rejection of the 15-member Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which has been urging these countries to reconsider their decision to leave the bloc.
General Tiani emphasized, “Our peoples have irrevocably turned their backs on ECOWAS. It is up to us today to make the AES Confederation an alternative to any artificial regional group by building … a community free from the control of foreign powers.” This strong statement reflects the deep-seated dissatisfaction with ECOWAS and a desire for a new regional order.
Goals and Challenges of the AES
The AES has set ambitious goals, including the establishment of a joint force to address security threats across their territories, agreed upon in March. Additionally, their finance ministers have discussed the possibility of creating a monetary union, with some officials expressing support for abandoning the West African CFA franc.
Economic and Security Concerns
However, the extent to which the AES will harmonize political, economic, and defense policies remains unclear. The alliance faces significant challenges, including a decade-long battle with Islamist insurgents and the struggle to grow economies that rank among the world’s poorest.
Impact on Regional and International Relations
ECOWAS has made various diplomatic efforts to dissuade Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso from quitting the alliance. The split threatens to reverse decades of regional integration and could lead to a complex disentanglement from trade and service flows worth nearly $150 billion annually.
The fallout with ECOWAS is linked to stringent sanctions and an unrealistic threat to use force in restoring constitutional rule in Niger after the coup. The three states accused ECOWAS of abandoning its founding ideals and providing insufficient support against Islamist insurgencies, which have resulted in thousands of deaths and over 3 million displaced people.
International Influence
The policies of the juntas have reshaped international influence in the central Sahel. Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso have been fostering closer defense, diplomatic, and business ties with Russia, at the expense of former colonial power France, regional heavyweight Nigeria, and the United States.
Bottom Line
The formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) marks a significant geopolitical shift in West Africa, highlighting the desire of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso to reclaim sovereignty and forge a new regional path. The success of this confederation will depend on its ability to address internal security and economic challenges while navigating complex regional and international dynamics.
