The battle for Osun State is heating up. And Governor Ademola Adeleke is sounding the alarm. He says the opposition is not planning to win the August 15, 2026, governorship election. He says they are planning to disrupt it.
Adeleke has alleged that elements within the All Progressives Congress are plotting to undermine the forthcoming poll. In a statement issued on Wednesday by his spokesperson, Olawale Rasheed, the governor claimed that certain actors in the opposition party were resorting to anti-democratic tactics due to fear of losing.
“Having seen clearly that Osun people have rejected them, they are now resorting to anti-democratic means in a last-ditch effort to secure power,” the statement read.
The governor’s camp claims that opinion surveys allegedly commissioned between late 2025 and March 2026 placed the APC’s popularity below 30 percent, while Adeleke’s approval rating ranged between 68 and 72 percent. “This clearly shows that Governor Adeleke enjoys overwhelming support from the people. The opposition can already see the outcome ahead of August 15,” he added.
The Alleged Plot
Adeleke further alleged that recent remarks by Akin Ogunbiyi concerning the position of President Bola Tinubu have unsettled factions within the Osun APC. He claimed that the situation heightened tensions among party members, particularly within factions linked to former governor Adegboyega Oyetola, prompting what he described as desperate political manoeuvres.
The statement also accused the opposition of attempting to destabilise other political platforms and pushing for their deregistration after failing to gain control.
The governor is not just claiming that the APC will lose. He is claiming that the APC knows it will lose and is therefore preparing to disrupt the process rather than accept defeat. That is a serious allegation. It suggests that Adeleke believes the coming election will not be decided at the ballot box but through subterfuge, intimidation, or legal manipulation.
The APC Fires Back
The Osun APC spokesperson, Kola Olabisi, dismissed the allegations, describing them as unfounded and indicative of anxiety within the governor’s camp.
“This is simple arithmetic. Those eminent politicians in their camp have all left. Look at Wole Oke, Fadahunsi, Ajilesoro, Dotun Babayemi, Akin Ogunbiyi and many others,” Olabisi said. “So, what is left of their party? Apart from the fact that their party is unpopular, it is also spineless. The people of Osun should discountenance Adeleke because he doesn’t know what he is saying.”
The APC’s response is twofold. First, they argue that Adeleke’s party is crumbling from within, with defections weakening its structure. Second, they argue that the governor’s allegations are a sign of panic — that he sees the writing on the wall and is trying to preemptively discredit the election results.
Both sides cannot be right. But both sides are positioning themselves for the narrative battle that will follow the election, regardless of who wins.
The Stakes
The Osun governorship election is not just a local contest. It is a proxy battle for the national opposition. Adeleke is a prominent figure in the People’s Democratic Party. A win for him would strengthen the PDP’s hand ahead of 2027. A loss would hand the APC a strategic victory in the Southwest.
The governor’s approval ratings, if accurate, suggest he is personally popular. But popularity does not always translate into votes. And votes do not always translate into victory if the process is compromised.
Adeleke’s allegation that the APC is planning to disrupt the election is a warning. It is also a political strategy. By raising the specter of interference before the election, he is putting INEC, the security services, and the public on notice. If the election is marred by irregularities, he can point to his warning as evidence of a premeditated plot.
The APC, for its part, is betting that Adeleke’s allegations will be seen as the desperate cries of a governor who sees his lead slipping away.
What to Watch For
Between now and August 15, expect both sides to escalate the rhetoric. Expect accusations of plots, counter-accusations of panic, and a steady stream of claims about defections, polls, and manipulation. The election will be decided by voters. But the narrative about the election is already being fought in the press.
Adeleke says the APC is coming for the election — not to win it, but to steal it. The APC says Adeleke is panicking because his house is collapsing. The truth will emerge on August 15. But the battle for public opinion has already begun.
The Bottom Line
Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke has alleged that elements within the APC are planning to disrupt the August 15, 2026, governorship election. He claims that opinion surveys show his approval rating between 68 and 72 percent, while the APC’s popularity is below 30 percent. He says the opposition, seeing certain defeat, is resorting to anti-democratic tactics.
The Osun APC has dismissed the allegations, calling them unfounded and indicative of panic within Adeleke’s camp. The APC spokesperson pointed to defections from the governor’s party as evidence that his political structure is collapsing.
The election is months away. But the war of words is already in full swing. Adeleke says the APC is coming for the election. The APC says Adeleke is coming undone. Voters will decide which narrative holds up.
