The Nigeria’s political culture has been one made or marred not just by monetary inducement alone, but by ethnic and religious shenanigans. It’s no gainsaying that since the British colonial government handed over the baton of leadership to the Nigerian political players in 1960, the decision of who becomes who and what in the political corridor always revolves around tribal and religious sentiments.
Even the first military coup that wiped off the likes of late Ahmadu Bello(former Sadauna of Sokoto and Premier of Northern region), Tafawa Balewa(first Nigerian prime minister) among others was adjudged to be an “Igbo coup” targeted against other regional political leaders.
Before then, the suspicion and phobia of being exploited, marginalised or sidelined in the political chess-game has built a large hole in the minds of the three major ethnic groups in Nigeria— Yoruba in the South, Hausa-fulani in the North and Igbo in the Eastern divide.
The suspicion played out well in the 1956 London Conference where the fate of Nigeria was to be decided for Independence. The North wanted the largest seats in the house of representatives, while the South refused, resulting in the delay of granting independence to Nigeria till 1960.
These ethnic groups are like the three biological brothers eating together from the same plate and struggling to eat more than each other. The struggle and competition has become toxic, sinister, ominous and perhaps, deadly.
Since Nigeria came back to civilian rule in 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo(A Yoruba man) was tipped to be the president after a long reign of the northern military hegemony at the helm of power. This, according to historical context, was to provide closure and respite to the Yoruba people for their loss in the person of MKO Abiola who died in detention after winning the 1993 presidential election.
After the eight years tenure of Olusegun Obasanjo, another northern man came to power in the person of Umar Musa Yar’adua. Unfortunately, death changed the narrative after two years in power and his vice president, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan from South-south became the ‘accidental president’—even though the Northern political leaders begrudged the turn of event, constitutional provision prevailed after series of litigation to get Goodluck Ebele Jonathan out of power in 2009.
Goodluck Jonathan, a man from a minority group from the South-South ruled until 2015 that APC came with the master plan of selling another Northern candidate where a chunk of the vote always comes from to the electorate. Muhammadu Buhari, a former military head of state was well packaged and sold, riding beside him was a Yoruba-Christian, Yemi Osibanjo as the running mate. Reports had it that Bola Ahmed Tinubu actually stepped down from being the Vice Presidential candidate just to eschew the idea of a Muslim-Muslim ticket that could incur the wrath of the Christian denominations in the country. Religious factor!
Now! 2023 is fast approaching and the rhetoric and permutations of who becomes the next president of Nigeria has been the order of the day. A northern president will be bowing out of the corridor of power in 2023 after eight years, the Southwest region has launched a presidential campaign for the National leader of All Progressive Congress, Bola Ahmed Tinubu after a consensus was reached by Southern Governors that power should be shifted to the South in 2023, the Igbo people under the umbrella of Ohanaeze Ndigbo has threatened that the only panacea to the civil unrest and agitations for a sovereign state of Biafra is to allow an Igbo Presidency to become a reality in 2023, while the North on the other hand has vehemently rejected the idea of rotational presidency, rather clamouring for democratic process to take its course and a ‘Nigerian President’ that will unify the whole region be elected, regardless of ethnic or religious affiliation.
“The vote says vote who you want. We have the majority of the votes. Why do we need to accept a second class position when we can fight and get a first class position. Why? Why does anyone need to threaten us and cajole us and intimidate us? If you don’t bring the presidency here, you will see, okay let’s see, we are waiting to see.” Spokesman of Northern Elders Forum(NEF), Hakeem Baba-Ahmed said at the Memorial Lecture of Late Maitama Sule at Zaria Kaduna on September 20, 2021.
The debate about what exactly should be the yardstick for choosing Nigerian President has been the bone of contention for as long as the creation of the lugardian contraption called Nigeria.
Should rotational presidency prevail, putting into cognizance the ethnic diversity of the geographical entity called Nigeria? Or competency should be the yardstick?
The enigmatic nature of this contention made the Constitution to be silent on such a critical issue, I think. Because if we’re to go by the theory that rotational presidency is the best for Nigeria, on what basis would the rotation be based on? Ethnic factor, geopolitical zoning or religious consideration?
It is noteworthy that Nigeria has more than the three major ethnic groups that always lay claim to the presidential position. An ijaw man will not want to be lumped with the Igbos, a Tiv man cannot get respite from a Yoruba presidency. Meanwhile, Christian and Muslim community are also holding themselves by the jugular over who becomes the president and vice president at a given time.
“First, it is imperative that we remind Nigerians that this is not the first time that MURIC is making a case for a Yoruba Muslim president. In fact it is the fourth time and we have the record. Our first statement on the matter was issued on February 23, 2021 and it was captioned ‘Why Has No Yoruba Muslim Ever Occupied Aso Rock?” A statement by the Muslim Rights Concern on the 25th of October, 2021 reads.
So, it’s not even about the ethnic group anymore, it is now about religious affiliation. And the fragmentation keeps narrowing down. Endlessly. Causing more problems than solutions. Even the youths are fighting for their own share of the presidential cake. Saying it is their turn to rule.
On the other hand, it will be hypocritical to advocate for presidency based on merit and competence alone, because all the ethnic groups can boast of competent, charismatic and meritorious personalities. The Igbo has Ngozi Okonjo Iweala making Nigeria proud at the World Trade Organization(WTO), The Hausa-fulani has Amina Muhammed as the Vice President of United Nations, while the Yoruba has Akinwumi Adesina at the the helm of African Development Bank. Imagine these personalities running for the Nigerian presidential position at the same time, would merit and competency be part of the discourse anymore? No! The votes would be based on ethnic and religious consideration.
Meanwhile, restructuring that should take care of this imbroglio is another bone of contention on its own. What restructuring means to the south is different from what it means to the North. But the truth remains that there is an imbalance that needs to be rectified and that’s the geopolitical structure of the country whereby the North has 19 states to boast of as against 17 states in the South. This arrangement has undoubtedly been favouring the northern region during every election, consequently forming the ‘big brother’ that was ‘born to rule’.
In as much as it might seem sensible that Nigeria needs a ‘Nigerian president’ rather than a regional president, the stand of the North against rotational presidency exposed their sinister motive to continue holding on to power for as long as the current geopolitical structure remains in their favour. Politics is a game of numbers, any other thing is secondary. The North knows this for a fact, and they know they’re holding the biggest part of the stick. Reason they’re not buying the idea of a rotational presidency. And this will continue to give canon to the fodder of agitation for a sovereign state of Biafra in the East and Oduduwa Republic in the West.
If truly the North means well for Nigeria, as against the presumption that the North is nurturing a ‘born to rule’ mentality at the detriment of other regions, the North should champion the cause for restructuring of the geopolitical zones, with the creation of two more southern states to tally with that of North, support the return to regional government where every region governed itself with a weak federal government, or allows rotational presidency that will give other regions a sense of belonging and entrenches justice, fairness and equity.
“Diversity may be the hardest thing for a society to live with and perhaps the most dangerous thing for a society to be without.” —William Sloane Coffin Jr.
How Nigeria manages its diversity is the ultimate key to its political and economic prosperity.
